PhD Dissertation: A Multi-faceted Approach to Elucidate Drivers of Estuarine and Marine Species Distribution
1) Can prey predict predator in a North Carolina estuarine system?
In North Carolina, blue crab has been one of the most important fisheries for decades, but is currently overfished and experiencing overfishing. There are numerous predators that consume blue crabs within estuaries. To further understand the relationship between blue crabs, their predators, alternate prey items, and the environment, I used species distribution models (SDMs). We asked 1) does total prey or blue crab abundance help explain predator distribution and abundance in addition to the environment, 2) does a joint modeling approach enhance our understanding of these explanatory variables, and 3) does scale and data resolution impact joint SDM predictive ability?
2) What drives humpback whale density in the Gulf of Maine?
As marine megafauna, humpback whales are integral to the ecotourism industry in the Northeast U.S. and consume large amounts of forage species that other species likewise rely on. As this region of the world is rapidly warming, this research seeks to understand if climate change is impacting the distribution of humpback whales and fishes. We are using a spatiotemporal species distribution model to ask if 1) humpback whale density has changed in the Gulf of Maine between 2003-2018, 2) what abiotic and biotic factors influence humpback whale distribution, and 3) Can and should we use prey item distribution to understand humpback whale distribution?
3) When and where are sharks captured through land-based recreational shark fishing? What is the behavior, effort, and management opinions from participants in the fishery?
My last dissertation project relies on field interviews with land-based shark fishers (LBSFs) to learn about the distribution of large coastal sharks and fisher catch in North Carolina. I aim to 1) further define the seasonal distribution of large coastal sharks and 2) collect behavior and effort information to increase our understanding of state-water shark fisheries. This research will allow us to learn about both data-limited shark species and a data-limited recreational fishery. My study is the first to collect data on this recreational fishery in N.C. directly from the participants. Resource users (e.g: fishers) are an integral part of science and management, and I am looking forward to actively engaging with these stakeholders in my research.
Roberts, S.M., Dowd, S., Thorne, L.H., Roberts, J.J., Halpin, P.N., Khan, C.B., Palka, D., Wiley, D.N., Smith, L., Smith, B., Nye, J.A. (2025). Humpback whale densities are increasing in the Great South Channel: concurrent multi-trophic level shifts in abundance. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 754, 105-119.
Dowd, S., Roberts, S.M., Bacheler, N.M., & Nye, J.A. (2025). Predicting predator abundance from prey in estuaries: Insights from single and joint species distribution modeling. Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science, 109083.
Strader, R. N., Dowd, S. C., Blawas, C., Mahoney, R. D., Patetta, N. C., Leslie, J., & Nye, J. A. (2023). Climate variability hypothesis is partially supported in thermal limits of juvenile Northwest Atlantic coastal fishes. Journal of Fish Biology, 103(6), 1452-1462.
Video abstract & Science communication piece
Dowd, S., Chapman, M., Koehn, L. E., & Hoagland, P. (2022). The economic tradeoffs and ecological impacts associated with a potential mesopelagic fishery in the California Current. Ecological Applications, 32(4), e2578.
@Paul Craiger
Presentations
Talk- “Predicting Predator Abundance From Prey in Estuaries”
Oral presentation & panel participant, 154th American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting, Hawaii, September 2024
Poster- “Blue Crab Predators in a North Carolina Estuarine System: Do prey items enhance predator prediction?”
Poster Session, 37th Annual American Fisheries Society Tidewater Meeting, Virginia, March 2024
Talk- “Influence of Marine Heatwaves and Social Characteristics on Coastal Community Risk in the US and Australia”
Oral presentation, NOAA Fisheries Webinar Series, Virtual, June 2022, *Invited speaker
Poster- “A Comparison of Coastal Community Risk Between the US and Australia in a Changing Climate”
Poster session, 35th Annual AFS Tidewater Meeting, March 2022
Talk- “The Economic and Ecological Implications of a Potential Mesopelagic Fishery in the California Current”
Oral presentation, ASLO 2021 Aquatic Sciences Meeting, Virtual, June 2021
Talk- “The Economic and Ecological Implications of a Potential Mesopelagic Fishery in the California Current”
Oral presentation, North American Association of Fisheries Economists Webinar Series, Virtual, May 2021, *Invited speaker